iLucky986_Serena的部落格

Storage Markets traders are using a prediction market 
to forecast the change in the industry's revenue from 
2Q06 to 2Q07.  This market has been active since 
April 23, 2007.  It remains active until IDC releases 
their estimate of worldwide external storage ($4.299B, 
+6.2% y/y) and storage software revenue.  This data 
and the subsequent termination of this market will 
occur soon.  Here's a historical summary of industry 
revenue and year to year (y/y) growth by quarter.

        Ext Sys ($B)    S/W($B)    Total ($B)    % (y/y)

3Q05     3.900          2.219            6.119    
4Q05     4.524          2.491            7.015    
1Q06     4.053          2.414            6.467    
2Q06     4.048          2.477            6.525    
3Q06     4.300          2.454            6.754      10.4%
4Q06     4.796          2.567            7.363        5.0%
1Q07     4.292          2.689            6.981        7.9%
2Q07     4.299          TBD            >4.299        TBD

It is a good time to look for low risk trades that might 
yield nice returns.  For example, the market suggests 
there is a 6% chance that overall storage industry 
declined in 2Q07 compared to 2Q06.  

What do you think?

If you believe 6% chance it too high, then sell 2QDN 
if you already own the stock or short it if you do not.  
If you believe 6% is too low, then buy 2QDN or cover 
your short position.

Similar opportunities might exist in any of the five other 
securities used to predict storage industry revenue.

source: http://storagemarkets.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/09/easy-trades-2q0.html